Stifel has lowered its price target on Rush Street Interactive (RSI) from $34 to $30 while keeping its Buy rating. According to reports on the note, the cut reflects uncertainty over Colombia’s temporary 16% emergency tax on the sector and slowing growth in the US iCasino market.
The move was reported on October 26, 2026, although some market-data sites date Stifel’s action to October 23. The exact date of the note is unconfirmed. The research note itself is not public, so its contents are known only through third-party reporting.
The Colombia factor
According to those reports, Stifel points out that no court has yet ruled on whether the emergency decree behind the 16% levy is constitutional. Colombia’s fiscal 2027 budget, presented on October 20, also left out a permanent VAT on the industry and implies lower tax revenue than the previous year.
If nothing changes, the temporary tax expires at year-end. Stifel says that scenario would add more than $50 million in adjusted EBITDA upside to its 2027 and 2028 estimates.
On September 29, RSI said it does not operate in Brazil, that it considered it unlikely the Colombian tax would be lifted before the end of 2026, and that Colombia might propose a permanent increase smaller than 16%. At the time, Stifel estimated the tax costs the company about $50 million a year in operating expense.
Stifel had started coverage of RSI a little over a month earlier with a Buy rating and a $34 target, describing it as the only listed, US-focused pure-play led by iCasino.
Pressure on the stock
Stifel believes slowing growth in the size of the US iCasino market mostly explains the stock’s 40% drop over seven weeks. At the time of the report, shares traded at $15.90, close to their 52-week low of $15.51 and 54% below their 52-week high. That is under 8 times Stifel’s 2028 adjusted EBITDA estimate, roughly a two-turn discount to DraftKings.
On October 27, the stock set a new 52-week low of $15.48, down 5% from a prior close of $16.30. Analyst consensus stood at “Moderate Buy”, with an average price target of $31.33.
The next checkpoint is RSI’s third-quarter earnings call, scheduled for October 28 at 6 PM EDT.
What it means for operators and affiliates
The Mexico link is indirect but real. According to the reports, Stifel will watch how Brazil’s ban on online sports betting and iCasino affects competitors’ investment in Colombia, Mexico and Peru. That could cut either way: more operators chasing players and marketing budgets in Mexico, or pullbacks if global groups reduce their exposure to the region. RSI itself has said it expects some competitors may scale back Latin American investment.
For affiliates, that is a reason to review revenue concentration by operator and watch for shifts in CPA rates, acquisition budgets or brand exits.
The Colombian case is also a reminder of how quickly an emergency tax can change an operator’s numbers in a Latin American market. Anyone operating in Mexico should model tax scenarios rather than assume current conditions will hold.
One caveat: RSI has been reported to operate in three Latin American countries, but these sources do not confirm which ones or whether Mexico is among them. The October 28 call may clarify the company’s position on Colombia and the wider region.
This article is based on public information available at the time of publication. We try to verify the facts, but figures and details may contain errors or change, and iGaming.mx accepts no responsibility for their accuracy. It is not legal, tax or financial advice. Spotted a mistake? Email us.